Western Wyoming PM Forecast

Issued on Wed March 03, 2021 7:44 PM

Situation

High pressure brought sunny skies across western Wyoming today, and in the mountains, there was a strong temperature fluctuation ranging from the lows teens to the upper 30s in the shade. On solar slopes, temperatures warmed into the 40s and 50s. The day began with inverted temperatures with the valleys ranging from zero to single digits and then warming as high as 60 degrees. Light ridgetop winds were southwesterly to southerly.

Snow surfaces are variable, and during the warmest periods of the day became damp on most slopes except for low angle and shaded terrain. Above 9,000 feet, there is settled snow on shaded slopes and breakable crust on solar aspects, and below that elevation in open areas, the snow was supportable in the morning and became unconsolidated in the afternoon.

Forecast For Thursday, March 04, 2021

A low-pressure system will move across the area tomorrow; skies will become partly cloudy and no precipitation is expected. The day will start inverted with valley temperatures in the single digits and mountain temperatures in the low teens. During the day, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 30s, and ridgetop winds will be light and variable.

The avalanche hazard is expected to be Considerable in the Grey’s River and Togwotee Pass forecast areas, where it is possible for a person to trigger a deep persistent slab avalanche with depths to 8 feet. The likelihood of triggering one of these slabs will increase with the daily warming.

In the Teton forecast area, the hazard will decrease overnight and also increase as the day warms. The avalanche hazard is expected to be Moderate, and a person could trigger a slab avalanche up to 3 feet in depth. The chances for triggering a deeper slab in the Tetons is becoming unlikely. At the upper elevations, there remains the possibility for a dry snow avalanche in steep avalanche terrain.

In all the forecast areas below 9,000 feet and on solar aspects, wet slides are possible and may become likely during the warmest periods of the day, especially if skies clear. In areas with a shallow snowpack, there could be wet slab avalanches and on steep slopes wet loose slides. Backcountry travelers should monitor the snow’s surfaces and avoid steep slopes when the snow becomes damp; because as temperatures warm above freezing the snowpack can quickly change from stable to unstable.

Trend For Friday, March 05, 2021 AND Saturday, March 06, 2021

Diurnal warming will continue to increase the avalanche hazard during the warmest periods of the day and when slopes receive direct sunlight.
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